We did it!

‘Biggest winter’ on record – and it isn’t over yet

Well, we did it, Mammoth and the Eastern Sierra.

According to local forecaster Howard Sheckter, the winter of 2022-23 is already the “biggest winter” on record.

With 67 FEET of snow on top of Mammoth Mountain at press time, with a snowpack more than double a normal winter, with condos and homes and buildings literally crashing down to the ground due to the weight of the snow, no one living in the Eastern Sierra this winter will be surprised to hear they are living through a winter like few others have or will ever see – but still, it’s good to know.

How does Sheckter know this?

Sheckter is comparing the snowpack so far to previous snowpack measurements, which were taken for decades on

April 1, the date considered to be when the snowpack in the Sierra is typically at its very highest.

“It’s official! This is the biggest winter already for April 1st of all time,” said Sheckter Wednesday, March 22.

As of this Monday, the snowpack on Mammoth Pass officially measured more snow on the pass than any other snowpack on record, with records going back to 1940, he said. (While there might have been bigger winters before 1940, there are no reliable records of them, he said).

While most people think of snowpack as a matter of how many feet deep the snow is, water managers use another, more accurate way to determine how big a winter is; they measure the literal amount of water in the snow, not the depth, because the depth of snow can vary so much depending on how light or dense the snow is. The amount of actual water in the snowpack, however, is very reliable. In this case, measurements taken by the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power on Mammoth Pass show that the water content in the snow on the 9,000-foot pass measured at 90. 3 inches of water, or 212 percent of normal for the winter, held within the snowpack up there this week, compared to the second biggest winter, 1968-69, where the water content came in at 86.5 inches, according to Mammoth forecaster Howard Sheckter.

“In checking the DWP data for Mammoth Pass this morning, the pass has already surpassed the April 1 figures for all time, with 90.3 inches of water, which is 212 percent of normal for April 1st,” he said. “During the winter of 1969, there was 86.5 inches or 199 percent of normal for that same date. During the big water year of 1983, there was 83.7 inches on the pass, or 192 percent of normal.

Even with some possible reporting or record-keeping differences, the winter of 202223 is coming in ahead, he said.

“It’s alleged that during the winter of 1983, there was 90 inches at the Pass later that Spring,” he said, meaning even so, this winter is bigger, as in wetter.

And it isn’t over yet.

“More snowfall today will add to that April 1 benchmark as well as any future storms by April 1” he said, noting that more snow is coming this week (after the Times went to press) and next week.

“There are a few colder storms over the weekend with light snow showers possible,” he said. “It looks cold and at times blustery through the weekend. A low confidence outlook for next week shows the next storm on March 28 which will last through much of the end of month,” he said. “Although this is highly subject to change, this storm looks like it could add another two to three feet of snow over the Sierra crest,” he said.

Then what?

Sheckter thinks the next few weeks at least will continue to be unsettled but and possibly there could be a strong storm next week, around March 28 and into the weekend; as of press time on Wednesday, that forecast was starting to indicate a bigger storm than originally forecast, with possibly multiple feet of snow again in the forecast.

But at some point, the snow will stop and things will begin to dry out, if only because there is a big change coming in the weather patterns that govern the coming spring and summer.

“Its official; La Niña is dead,” he said. “But we are still acting La Niña-ish, which means we will probably continue to get storms into end of month and end of first week or so of April.

“So, what’s to come later this year from this change?” he said, after noting the one thing he most worries about as a consequence of the huge snowpack in the future is a rapid, intense increase in temperatures this spring and summer, which could send the record-breaking snowpack hurtling down rivers, creeks and drainages, causing untold damage to ecosystems and human structures.

The good news there, he said, is there are no current forecasts for an unusually warm spring or summer and if that holds, the snowpack might be able to melt slowly, allowing people and the landscape to absorb the runoff better.

“According to the models so far, we are not going to get that kind of heat wave this May and June,” he said.